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His study of the presidential results in the Midwest showed how strong turnout among voters in regions facing economic deterioration can help Republicans. In that earlier report, Austin wrote:.

The small- and medium-sized factory towns that dot the highways and byways of Michigan, Indiana, Ohio and Wisconsin have lost their anchor employers and are struggling to fill the void. Many of these communities, including once solidly Democratic-voting, union-heavy, blue collar strongholds, flipped to Trump in This pattern is not limited to the United States.

There are numerous studies demonstrating that European and British voters who are falling behind in the global economy, and who were hurt by the recession and the subsequent cuts to the welfare state, drove Brexit as well as the rise of right-wing populist parties. A strong relationship between job loss and decreased generalized solidarity. We find evidence of in-group bias and the bias becomes more pronounced due to exposure to austerity policies. Examination of economic trends, welfare policy and polling data shows, according to Fetzer, that.

These reforms activated existing economic grievances. Further, auxiliary results suggest that the underlying economic grievances have broader origins than what the current literature on Brexit suggests. This pattern markedly stops from onward as austerity started to bite. There are significant parallels between voting patterns for and against Brexit and the patterns in the and elections in this country.

What could go wrong for Democrats

The results here and in England reinforce the conclusion that the worse things get, the better the right does. As a rule, as economic conditions improve and voters begin to feel more secure, they become more generous and more liberal. In the United States, this means that voters move to the left; in Britain, it means voters are stronger in their support for staying in the European Union. In light of the historical experience of advanced countries, embracing the program of embedded liberalism made economic and political sense.

Twentieth-century democratic capitalism had proved to be both successful and resilient: it had delivered high growth; it had allowed governments to fund generous social programs; and it had sent its main political and economic competitor — communism — to the ash heap of history. As global competition, outsourcing and later, automation, began to produce significant economic disruption, beginning in the s, this liberal consensus frayed.

Class Divides Republicans — But Not Democrats — on Economic Issues

The structure of electoral participation became strongly polarized across the Atlantic — very much in line with the economic transformations brought about by the decline of industry and by globalization in the last forty years. In the United States, economic adversity helped produce Trump, whose inaugural speech reportedly the handiwork of Steve Bannon and Stephen Miller Boix cites as emblematic of the hostility emerging with the fall of liberalism:.

Washington flourished, but the people did not share in its wealth. Politicians prospered, but the jobs left. And the factories closed. The establishment protected itself but not the citizens of our country. Their victories have not been your victories.


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Their triumphs have not been your triumphs. That all changes starting right here and right now. Together, the trends described above raise an intriguing question: If the Republican Party now depends on the votes of those who are falling behind, does the party have a vested interest in economic stagnation and decline? I asked scholars and officials at the Niskanen Center — a Washington think tank that recently received favorable coverage for its efforts to resolve contemporary ideological division — whether they thought the Republican Party has come to recognize that prosperity helps Democrats, while economic adversity engenders hostility to immigrants, resentment of liberal elites and animosity among rural voters toward urban America.

Does this awareness give politicians on the right a motive to support policies and actions that foster government dysfunction and further impair sections of the country that are in decline?


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It provides civic education. Working from this premise, Taylor argued that as far as conservatives go,.

Want A Better Economy? History Says Vote Democrat!

The G. And the argument that the G. This has put the Republican Party in a painful position, according to Wilkinson:. And, of course, this ideological stance turns out to be incredibly convenient for rich donors looking for any excuse to keep their taxes down. Results shaded dark blue and dark red represent races in which the Democratic or Republican advantage or margin of victory reached or exceeded ten percentage points.

Table 2 arrays comparable results for the southern-tier states. Note: The House calculation includes votes for Democratic candidates running in races where they faced no Republican opponent as well as votes for Democratic and Republican candidates in uncontested races. The House analysis excludes uncontested races in Florida since the state does not count votes cast for uncontested candidates. In the southern tier, by contrast, Democrats lost six of seven statewide races.

Similarly, Democrats won the aggregate House vote in three of the five northern states but just one of four southern states. The results for Democrats in the southern states were less positive. While several Democratic House candidates managed to win seats previously held by Republican representatives in every southern-tier state analyzed, Democrats ultimately only flipped six of the 86 congressional districts analyzed roughly seven percent. Obama-Trump counties won by Democratic gubernatorial and Senate candidates were colored dark blue if the Democratic candidate won at least 50 percent of the Obama-Trump counties.

Here again, the results were encouraging for Democrats. In predominantly African-American Milwaukee County, the Democratic vote total rose from , in the gubernatorial race to , in , a gain of 13 percent. In predominantly African-American Wayne County Detroit , the Democratic gubernatorial total increased from , in to , in , a gain of 45 percent. By contrast, the Republican total in Wayne County rose by only four percent from to , and it fell by six percent in Milwaukee. Replicating these asymmetrical gains in would be more than enough to shift Wisconsin and Michigan back into the Democratic column.

The Democrats’ choice: The midterm elections and the road to 2020

Despite running energetic gubernatorial campaigns in Florida and Georgia that excited progressives nationwide, Andrew Gillum and Stacey Abrams also went down to defeat. Although the results in Florida were especially disappointing for Democrats, they should not have been entirely surprising. In presidential elections, moreover, Florida is always slightly more Republican than the country as a whole. In , George W. Bush received In , he got In , John McCain totaled just In , the figures for Mitt Romney were And in , Donald Trump received Over the past five elections, in short, Republican presidential candidates have outperformed their national totals in Florida by an average of 1.

Newly released voter data provide additional insight into the results in Florida. Although African-American, Latino, and young adults turned out in droves for Andrew Gillum, a surge of white voters for his opponent was enough to keep the statehouse in Republican hands. More registered Florida Republicans than registered Democrats turned out, even though Democrats outnumber Republicans on the voter rolls. An analysis by University of Florida political scientist Dan Smith found that turnout in some Republican counties hit presidential levels.

Nor are demographic trends in Florida especially favorable for Democrats. Whites moving to Florida tend to be prosperous, conservative-leaning retirees. In a strong Democratic year—such as , when Barack Obama prevailed nationally by seven points—the Democratic presidential nominee will probably prevail in Florida as well. In a tighter contest, however, the odds shift significantly in the other direction.

Texas may well end up in the Democratic column someday—but probably not in In , Texas Democrats lost both the Senate and the aggregate House vote by three points, and the governorship by 13 points. Taking a longer view: Barack Obama lost the state by 12 points in and 16 points in Hillary Clinton did better but still fell short by nine points.

Texas Democrats won their last statewide victory more than three decades ago, in As in Texas, these hopes have surged ahead of the facts on the ground. Republicans won the aggregate statewide House by eight points in despite a record turnout of Democratic voters. Barack Obama lost the state by five points in and by eight points in The last Democrat to win a statewide race in Georgia was Zell Miller in , and he was so conservative that he ended up keynoting the Republican convention. Stacey Abrams did a terrific job of mobilizing voters, raising the Democratic total from 1.

But her opponent successfully counter-mobilized voters, raising the Republican total from 1. Amazingly the two-party vote for governor in was virtually equal to the two-party presidential vote in , making these results the equivalent of a dry-run for The election, however, offers just a snapshot of how these two sets of states may vote in What does a longer-term perspective reveal?

The overall performance of Democratic House candidates in Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania was noticeably stronger this past election than in the midterms. Although House Democrats also made substantial gains in the four southern-tier states we analyzed, they remained well behind in Florida, Georgia, and Texas while gaining the narrowest possible advantage in Arizona.

With the exception of Sen. Debbie Stabenow Mich. Bob Casey and Wisconsin Sen.